Coming live from Houston, Texas we have the reigning and defending Heavyweight champion of the world Cain Velasquez taking on the only man to ever defeat him inside the octagon former UFC Heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos. This is the third clash between these two giant men and is one of the most highly anticipated trilogies in UFC history. Now let’s breakdown the evening’s fight card which is stacked from top to bottom.
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos: This fight comes down to the ability of Junior Dos Santos being able to effectively keep the fight standing in the realm that he feels most comfortable which is on the feet. Dos Santos in the previous fight was not effective whatsoever in keeping the fight standing allowing Velasquez to take him down at will and dominate with solid positioning and ground and pound. In the first fight between these two men Velasquez was hesitant in attempting take downs which gave Dos Santos the opportunity to knock him out early and viciously. Flash knockdowns between heavyweights is always to be expected as these men are giant and hit extremely hard, however, a complete domination over 5 rounds and 25 minutes is more indicative of the vast differential in the skills of the two and more profound in the weaknesses of Dos Santos. After fighting only 10 months ago, there is no doubt in my mind that Dos Santos has not made the vast improvements in his wrestling game to effectively limit Velasquez’s shot attempts and to keep the fight standing. While Dos Santos showed more of a well rounded striking attack against Mark Hunt, his wrestling is still far behind that of Cain Velasquez. As a result I see Velasquez being able to effectively score takedowns while winning the stand up portion of the game due to the hesitancy that will most likely occur while Dos Santos is worried about being taken down. I see another dominant and impressive unanimous decision win for Velasquez.
Prediction: Velasquez by UD
Roy Nelson vs. Daniel Cormier: These two men have vastly different personalities and styles of fighting and as we all have seen before, styles is what makes fights. Cormier is known as one of the best wrestlers competing in MMA to go along with his vastly improving stand up striking in each and every fight. Everytime we watch Cormier fight there is vast improvements in his boxing and kickboxing game to go along with his always dominant wrestling. Nelson is known for his ability to take a punch, his heavy hands and his deadly jiu jitsu. Unfortunately for Nelson there is only one area where he has the distinct advantage and that is jiu jitsu and in order for Nelson to use his jiu jitsu he will need to wrestle with Cormier, which is not an easy task. As a result of the styles of both fighters, I believe Cormier will have an easy fight being able to use his clinch wrestling techniques to keep the fight at a close distance and using his dirty boxing ability to avoid the power of Nelson and the jiu jitsu game.
Prediction: Cormier by UD
Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez: In a fight that has fight of the night written all over it we have Diego Sanchez taking on former training partner Gilbert Melendez. Melendez is coming off a controversial decision loss to former Lightweight champion Ben Henderson in a fight many thought Melendez had won. Diego Sanchez is coming off a year long delay and is also coming off a controversial decision, one in which many thought he had lost. This fight on paper is one in which there will be a lot of back and forth drama on the feet mixed in with a few take downs by Melendez on Sanchez. Sanchez will look to make it a crazy and wild brawl in which technicality will go out the door and which will favor him. Melendez will no doubt bang away with him, but I envision Melendez also mixing in a nice amount of takedowns to ensure he comes out the winner. Both men fight with their heart on their sleeves and both have iron chins, unfortunately for Sanchez the difference will be in the wrestling department where the obvious edge goes to Melendez. I expect this to be fight of the night, but I also expect for Melendez to have an easy time defeating his former training partner.
Prediction: Melendez by UD
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan: Gabriel Gonzaga has shown repeatedly that he loves to stand and bang and neglect the fact that he is one of the best on the ground in the heavyweight division. Shawn Jordan has shown he can knock out the best in the world. Since Gonzaga, never learns his lesson, I expect for Gonzaga to keep it standing and I expect for Jordan to take advantage of this fact and take him out on the feet.
Prediction: Jordan by 1st Rd TKO
John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague: John Dodson is the enigmatic character with a huge smile and devastating power in his hands. Darrell Montague is making his UFC debut and this will be a rough one for the youngster as he will be fighting a man who is quicker and hits harder then him. I expect this fight to end early and expect Dodson to finish this fight on the feet.
Prediction: Dodson by 1st Rd TKO
Tim Boetsch vs. CB Dolloway: In a fight that pits two of the best wrestlers in the 185 division against one another we have CB Dolloway taking on Tim Boetsch in a fight that will most likely end up on the feet as each man’s wrestling skills will negate one another. Boetsch will have the definitive advantage on the feet as he hits harder and has the better chin of the two men. I expect Boetsch to be able to avoid the takedown and take out Dolloway in the 2nd round.
Prediction: Boetsch by 2nd Rd TKO
Hector Lombard vs. Nate Marquardt: In a fight where the loser will leave town we have two men who have shown a viciousness inside the octagon squaring off against one another. We have former world class judoka Hector Lombard taking on former Pancrese champion Nate Marquardt in what should amount to a short and violent fight between two men who hit hard and grapple hard. I give this advantage to Marquardt who will not be fighting at 170 pounds for the first time, like Lombard will be. Lombard has the grappler’s advantage but I believe the weight cut will adversely affect him to the point where Marquardt can take him out on the feet in the 2nd round.
Prediction: Marquardt by 2nd Rd TKO
Jessica Eye vs. Sarah Kaufman: In a fight that should excite this Texas crowd we have the always entertaining Sarah Kaufman taking on UFC newcomer Jessica Eye. Kaufman has fought the best and always brings the fight to her opponent. We don’t know what we are going to get from Eye, but so far each and every woman’s fight this year has been entertaining in the UFC. I think Kaufman will just be too much for Eye, who will win by 2nd round TKO.
Prediction: Kaufman by 2nd Rd TKO
KJ Noons vs. George Sotiropolous: KJ Noons will look to keep the fight on the feet as there are not many men that can stand and bang with him and Sotiropolouos is definitely not one of those men. Sotiropolous will look to get the fight to the ground where he possesses the obvious advantage. However, I believe Noons has enough take down defense to keep the fight standing therefore enabling Noons to pick Sotiropolous apart on the feet en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: Noons by UD
Adlan Amagov vs. TJ Waldburger: In a fight that features two grappling specialists of different styles in jiu jitsu versus wrestling, we have Adlan Amagov taking on TJ Waldburger. Amagov will be able to keep the fight in his comfort zone on the ground while avoiding the submission and this I envision will be a rather blaze affair.
Prediction: Amagov by UD
Tony Ferguson vs. Mike Rio: In a fight that pits two former competitors on the Ultimate Fighter we have Tony Ferguson taking on Mike Rio. Ferguson is a man with great wrestling to go along with a lot of power in his fists. Rio is a man with a great ground game and evolving stand up. I expect this fight to take place wherever Ferguson wants it to take place, giving him a firm advantage. Ferguson has been missing in action for a while now and I expect him to come out hungry and with something to prove.
Prediction: Ferguson by 2nd Rd TKO
Andre Fili vs. Jeremy Larsen: Andre Fili is the up and comer with devastating power and an ever evolving ground game who works out with Urijah Faber and his boys at Team Alpha Male. As such I expect to see Fili use his wrestling advantage to take the fight to the ground and pound out Jeremy Larsen in the 3rd round.
Prediction: Fili by 3rd Rd TKO
Kyogi Horiguchi vs. Dustin Pague: Pague has lost 3 straight close decisions but I expect him to come out swinging for the fences in this fight. Horiguchi making his UFC debut will be apprehensive at first, so if Pague attacks early he could finish him off early.
Prediction: Pague by 1st Rd TKO
Source:
http://dailylifewithanthony.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/ufc-166-preview/